Federal tax revenue could drop by more than 10% this year as more businesses and individuals, buoyed by the Trump administration’s slashing of IRS staff, forgo filing taxes or paying overdue balances. That’s the assessment from Treasury Department and IRS officials. The Washington Post’s Jacob Bogage reports:
That would amount to more than $500 billion in lost federal revenue; the IRS collected $5.1 trillion last year. For context, the U.S. government spent $825 billion on the Defense Department in fiscal 2024. “The idea of doing that in one year, it’s hard to grapple with how meaningful of a shift that represents,” said Natasha Sarin, president of the Yale Budget Lab and a senior Biden administration tax official. The prediction, officials say, is directly tied to changing taxpayer behavior and President Donald Trump’s rapid demolition of parts of the IRS.
Bogage explains how the incoming Trump administration was warned of this scenario:
Senior IRS officials attempted to warn the Trump transition team about the effects of planned staffing and budget cuts at the agency, according to other records, obtained by The Post through the Freedom of Information Act. … “Aggressive reductions to budget and personnel capacity risk backlogs, delays, reduced receipts, and diminished capacity to build next generation digital capabilities,” according to a January presentation given by tax officials to the incoming Trump administration’s Treasury Department team.
Medicaid cuts would hurt rural America
A GOP budget blueprint, which cuts $880 billion largely from Medicaid, would be catastrophic for rural communities across the country. Jennifer Shutt of States Newsroom explains how rural Americans could experience hospital closures and rising health care costs:
Rural hospitals and primary care physicians’ incomes would likely go down if Medicaid patients are no longer able to afford the same level of health care, potentially leading to reductions in services offered for everyone or even closures, according to experts. Whitney Zahnd, assistant professor in the Department of Health Management and Policy at the University of Iowa, said that cuts to Medicaid “will disproportionately hit rural communities,” where 24% of people are covered by the program, including 47% of all births and a majority of nursing home patients.
Shutt explains the ripple effect that hospital closures would have on local economies:
Losing income from Medicaid patients could lead to a “domino effect,” Zahnd said, exacerbating budget challenges for rural health care providers and potentially communities overall. “Economically in a lot of rural communities, the hospital is the largest employer,” Zahnd said. “So if you have a hospital close, it’s not just that people are losing access to health care, they might be losing their job or their family member may be losing their job.”
Out-of-state students fuel LSU’s growth
The number of out-of-state students at LSU has tripled over the last decade. In 2024, 38% of incoming freshmen at the state’s flagship university hailed from outside of Louisiana. While this uptick is reflective of many of LSU’s competitors, such as the University of Alabama and Mississippi where out-of-state enrollment sits above 60%, there are concerns about what it means for Louisiana. The Times-Picayune | Baton Rouge Advocate’s Patrick Wall reports:
The rise of out-of-staters at LSU has drawn scrutiny from some state lawmakers who question whether the university is doing everything possible to keep Louisiana’s top talent in state, and whether taxpayers win if many out-of-state students return home after graduation. “So then the flagship university of the state of Louisiana,” said state Rep. Kim Carver, R-Mandeville, “is producing the quality workforce for all of these other states.”
Wall lays out the benefits of attracting out-of-state students:
Even with the scholarships, out-of-state students still pay more than Louisiana students and earn LSU revenue, officials say. They also bring geographic diversity, expand the alumni network, elevate LSU’s national standing and contribute to Louisiana’s economy, [LSU’s Danny] Barrow added.
More states offering paid medical or sick leave
Access to paid leave helps ensure that people who get sick or have to care for family members don’t have to choose between their health and their job. But congressional inaction on a national paid sick leave law has left it up to states to provide this crucial resource. The AP’s Tom Murphy reports:
Voters in Missouri, Nebraska and Alaska approved paid sick leave laws in November. At least seven states are considering paid family and medical leave laws this year, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. (Jessica) Mason (of the National Partnership) says interest in paid leave has been building since the COVID-19 pandemic. “The pandemic really brought to the forefront of everyone’s mind how important paid sick leave is,” she said.
Number of the Day
179,773 – Number of Louisianans who cast ballots during early voting, which ended on Saturday, for the March 29 statewide ballot. (Source: Louisiana Secretary of State)