The Trump tax and spending law is projected to add between $3.4 trillion and $4.1 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. That added debt, in turn, could force massive, across-the-board cuts to the Medicare program that supports older Americans. That’s the conclusion of a Friday report from the Congressional Budget Office. The AP’s Stephen Groves reports:
The CBO estimates that Medicare, the federal health insurance program for Americans over age 65, could potentially see as much as $491 billion in cuts from 2027 to 2034 if Congress does not act to mitigate a 2010 law that forces across-the-board cuts to many federal programs once legislation increases the federal deficit. The latest report from CBO showed how Trump’s signature tax and spending law could put new pressure on federal programs that are bedrocks of the American social safety net.
Why child care costs so much – and how to fix it
The exorbitant cost of child care is straining the budgets of families with young children. Louisiana parents who responded to a survey from the Louisiana Policy Institute for Children earlier this year said they spend around $7,600 to more than $14,000 annually per child on child care. Jordan McGillis, economics editor of City Journal, writing in a guest column for the Washington Post, explains why child care cost so much:
Child care is expensive because it is labor-intensive. In a modern economy, personalized human attention — the loving care parents want for their kids — is scarce. While goods production continues to rise in efficiency as an economy advances, human services tend not to — child care chief among them. In other words, child care doesn’t scale.
McGillis lays out ways to drive costs down:
To make child care more abundant, the most obvious strategy is to add workers to the potential child care labor pool. One way of doing so would be by accepting more foreign workers as au pairs on J-1 cultural exchange visas and as nannies on temporary H-2B visas. … A second way of adding workers — and one that would avoid the trip wires of immigration politics — is to reject child care credentialism.
States face new costs and tough choices
The Trump tax and spending law shifts some of the costs of health care and food assistance from the federal government to states. Stateline’s Kevin Hardy explains how state lawmakers from across the country are preparing for this cost shift, and how Washington’s fiscal retreat could force tough choices:
With most states boasting solid fiscal positions, some expect to cover new up-front administrative costs by tapping into strong reserve funds. But many are considering reducing services. … “That becomes a challenge, right?” [Nevada state Sen. Fabian] Doñate said during a panel discussion on Medicaid. “Do you cut the pregnant mom or the person that makes above 180% of the federal poverty level who’s under 50, or do you cut diapers for seniors?”
New work reporting requirements will create administrative headaches for states:
One provision in the law requires the 40 states plus Washington, D.C., that have expanded Medicaid to check paperwork at least twice a year to ensure those enrollees are meeting new work requirements. The legislation provided states $200 million, but experts question whether it will be enough to help states implement the changes by the end of 2026.
The new law also mandates states shoulder 5 to 15 percent of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits starting in fiscal year 2028, which could force between $95 million and $283 million in new costs onto Louisiana.
A new kind of education system in New Orleans
Hurricane Katrina upended public education in New Orleans, ultimately leading to the creation of the first all-charter school system without any traditional public schools. A new report from the Brookings Institution examines how the education system in the Crescent City has changed in the two decades since the storm made landfall:
Instead of mainly being controlled by the superintendent and local school board, New Orleans schools are run by about 30 nonprofit organizations. There are no schools receiving an “F” letter grade, 79 percent of students graduate on time, and 65 percent of graduates continue to college.2 Students can attend schools across the city, as there are no more zoned public schools, but almost a quarter of students choose to attend private schools.
The report’s authors examine the effects of these policies:
In New Orleans, over the first decade after Hurricane Katrina, we find that these reforms led to large gains in a wide range of student outcomes. These improvements were due to the reforms themselves, especially the ongoing process of taking over and replacing low-performing schools, and not due to outside factors such as the changing population. … Over the second decade after Hurricane Katrina, those gains have mainly been sustained. There has been some improvement in equity and no negative effects on crime or student mobility.
Number of the Day
74% – Percentage of U.S. adults who say they would support banning middle and high school students from using cellphones during class, up from 68% last fall. A 2024 Louisiana law banned the use of cellphones by students in classrooms. (Source: Pew Research Center)